To start with, every project is subject to some uncertainty, but the amount of uncertainty can vary. Knowing a project’s uncertainty profile — ranging from simple variation to outright chaos — will help choose the right management strategy.

There are four uncertainty profiles along a spectrum:

Variation
Foreseen Uncertainty
Unforeseen Uncertainty
Chaos

Chaos represents the highest level of uncertainty in the project spectrum. In these situations, goals may be unclear, stakeholders may disagree, and external conditions can shift unpredictably. Projects in chaos often arise during crises, major disruptions, or environments where no reliable precedent exists.

Characteristics of a Project with Unforeseen Uncertainty

Objectives are ambiguous or contested; stakeholders may not agree on priorities.
The solution is undefined, and the environment is volatile — regulatory upheaval, market collapse, or sudden technological disruption.
No roadmap or proven approach exists; assumptions change rapidly.

Examples include

emergency response projects

crisis-driven organisational restructuring

projects launched during geopolitical instability

Project Manager’s Role

The project manager becomes a crisis navigator and sense-maker, focusing on stabilising the situation and creating clarity before moving forward. Leadership presence and rapid decision-making are critical. The role is less about planning and more about coordination, communication, and prioritisation under pressure.

Project Setup

Begin with rapid assessment to identify immediate priorities and stabilisation measures.
Establish short-term goals that can be achieved quickly to restore confidence and momentum.
Create high-level governance structures for fast decision-making and escalation.
Secure executive sponsorship to enable swift resource allocation and authority for urgent actions.

Project Monitoring and Decision-Making

Replace traditional monitoring with real-time information flows.
Use war-room style coordination for cross-functional alignment and rapid response.
Communicate frequently and transparently to maintain stakeholder trust and manage expectations.
Decisions should prioritise speed and impact over perfection — the goal is stabilisation, not optimisation.

Key Approaches & Techniques

Apply structured Crisis Management Frameworks for emergency response and recovery.
Use scenario-based planning to prepare for multiple possible futures and pivot quickly as conditions change.
Empower decision-makers with authority to act without bureaucratic delays.
Maintain open channels for updates and feedback with stakeholders to prevent misinformation and panic.
Foster psychological safety within teams to handle stress and ambiguity effectively.

References

DE MEYER, Arnoud; LOCH, Christoph H.; and PICH, Michael T. (2002). Managing project uncertainty: From variation to chaos. MIT Sloan Management Review. 43, (2), pp.60-67.
MONTEIRO MARINHO, Marcelo Luiz; DE BARROS SAMPAIO, Suzana Cândido; DE ANDRADE LIMA, Telma Lúcia; DE MOURA, Hermano Perrelli (2015). Uncertainty Management in Software Projects. Journal of Software. 10, (3), pp.288-303.

Managing a project with Total uncertainty