Uncertainty still requires project management
Project management is often thought of as a discipline of planning, control, and execution. Yet, as projects become more ambitious and environments more volatile, uncertainty is not just an obstacle, it is a defining feature. The spectrum of uncertainty profiles, from simple variation to outright chaos, reframes how we approach and lead projects.
What keeps it all “project management” is not the rigidity of a plan, but the adaptability of the process.
In projects dominated by variation or foreseen uncertainty, traditional tools — baselines, buffers, risk registers — provide structure and discipline.
As uncertainty shifts to unforeseen or chaotic, the emphasis moves to learning, flexibility, and rapid response. The project manager’s role evolves from troubleshooter to orchestrator, entrepreneur, and sense-maker.
By recognising and agreeing on the dominant types of uncertainty, teams can select the right management style, infrastructure, and decision-making processes. This shared understanding enables everyone to adapt as the project evolves, rather than being caught off guard.
Even in chaos, project management persists — not as a static set of tasks, but as a dynamic process of experimentation, feedback, and redefinition. The glue is the balance between discipline and learning, between planning for what can be known and adapting to what cannot.
Success depends on matching management style to the project’s uncertainty profile. The discipline of project management is not lost in more uncertain environments, it is transformed by it.