Failing to acknowledge uncertainty
If we fail to address and acknowledge the uncertainty inherent in a project, we risk much more than missed deadlines or budget overruns. Human nature itself conspires against us: our deep-seated preference for certainty, stability, and sufficient information — all of which help us feel secure and free from anxiety — can lead teams and leaders to drift back to the familiar, to the “knowns.”
This tendency is well documented in behavioural science. The Zero Risk Bias describes our inclination to prefer the elimination of risk, even when it’s not the most rational choice. The Ambiguity Effect shows how people avoid options where the probability of outcomes is unclear, favouring those with more certainty, even if they offer less value.
In an organisation, this will show up as:
Project team members want to know what they are doing, that they are successfully doing it
Organisation leaders want evidence of progress and control over direction.
The whole project team may give up on the project entirely.
When uncertainty is ignored or denied, teams will either attempt to impose artificial certainty — rigid plans, premature commitments, or excessive reporting — or disengage from the project altogether. This slows progress, stifles innovation, and undermines the potential value of initiatives that are, by their nature, more uncertain.
The real risk is not uncertainty itself, but our failure to engage with it honestly and constructively.
By acknowledging uncertainty, building it into our project profiles, and adapting our management style accordingly, we create space for learning, experimentation, and genuine progress. This is the glue that holds project management together, even as the environment shifts from variation to chaos.
Recognising and embracing uncertainty enables teams to innovate, adapt, and deliver value — as well as maintain discipline, make progress and deliver to objectives. The discipline of project management is transformed, not diminished, by uncertainty.
References
The Decision Lab n.d., Zero Risk Bias, accessed 6th July 2023, https://thedecisionlab.com/biases/zero-risk-bias
The Decision Lab n.d., Ambiguity Effect, accessed 6th July 2023, https://thedecisionlab.com/biases/ambiguity-effect