To start with, every project is subject to some uncertainty, but the amount of uncertainty can vary. Knowing a project’s uncertainty profile — ranging from simple variation to outright chaos — will help choose the right management strategy.

There are four uncertainty profiles along a spectrum:

Variation
Foreseen Uncertainty
Unforeseen Uncertainty
Chaos

Unforeseen uncertainty arises when neither the solution nor the risks are fully known at the outset. These projects often involve innovation, emerging technologies, or entry into unfamiliar markets. Traditional planning approaches fail because assumptions break down and new challenges emerge unexpectedly.

Characteristics of a Project with Unforeseen Uncertainty

The project objective may be clear, but the route to achieving it is not.
Risks cannot be fully anticipated; unknown unknowns surface during execution.
The environment is dynamic — new information, technologies, or stakeholder needs appear mid-project.

Examples include

disruptive product development

Pharmaceutical R&D - Developing a new drug where clinical trial outcomes and regulatory pathways are uncertain.

Entering an Emerging Market - Expanding into a region with volatile regulations and unclear consumer behaviour.

Project Manager’s Role

The project manager becomes an adaptive leader and facilitator of learning. Instead of enforcing rigid plans, the focus shifts to iteration, flexibility, and rapid response. Success depends on creating structures that allow the team to learn and pivot quickly.

Project Setup

Incremental Planning: Break the project into short cycles with frequent reassessment rather than a single, fixed plan.
Flexible Resource Allocation: Avoid locking resources too early; maintain capacity for reallocation.
Knowledge-Sharing Frameworks: Encourage collaboration and transparency so lessons learned are quickly disseminated.
Stakeholder Engagement: Set expectations for uncertainty and communicate that adaptability is part of the process.

Project Monitoring and Decision-Making

Replace strict baselines with adaptive metrics tied to learning outcomes or milestone achievements.
Use rolling-wave planning or stage planning, updating plans as new information emerges.
Empower teams to pivot without bureaucratic delays when assumptions fail.
Maintain continuous dialogue with stakeholders to manage evolving priorities.

Key Approaches & Techniques

Agile or Prince-Agile hybrid methodologies that mphasise iterative development and frequent feedback loops.
Prototyping and pilot phases that test ideas early to reduce uncertainty before proceeding. Be willing to cancel, or at least redefine a project based on outcomes of these phases
Rapid decision frameworks define escalation paths for major decisions, and empower each layer to make their own decisions without slowing progress.
Learning reviews to capture insights and adjust course.

References

DE MEYER, Arnoud; LOCH, Christoph H.; and PICH, Michael T. (2002). Managing project uncertainty: From variation to chaos. MIT Sloan Management Review. 43, (2), pp.60-67.
MONTEIRO MARINHO, Marcelo Luiz; DE BARROS SAMPAIO, Suzana Cândido; DE ANDRADE LIMA, Telma Lúcia; DE MOURA, Hermano Perrelli (2015). Uncertainty Management in Software Projects. Journal of Software. 10, (3), pp.288-303.

Managing a project with High uncertainty