Managing a project with Moderate uncertainty
Every project is subject to some uncertainty, but the amount of uncertainty can vary.
Knowing a project’s uncertainty profile — ranging from simple variation to outright chaos — will help choose the right management strategy.
There are four uncertainty profiles along a spectrum:
Variation
Foreseen Uncertainty
Unforeseen Uncertainty
Chaos
Foreseen uncertainty occurs when the project goal is clear, but some aspects of the solution or execution path are uncertain — and these uncertainties can be predicted. Unlike variation, where deviations are minor and manageable, foreseen uncertainty requires proactive risk planning.
Characteristics of a Project with Foreseen Uncertainty
The project objective is well-defined, but certain technical, logistical, or external factors introduce risk.
Risks can be identified upfront (e.g., supplier delays, regulatory approvals, technology integration challenges).
The team can anticipate where problems might arise and prepare contingency plans.
Examples include
large-scale infrastructure projects
product launches in regulated markets
Construction in a Dense Urban Area - Goal is clear, but risks include regulatory approvals, traffic management, and utility relocations.
Global Product Launch - Marketing plan is defined, but risks include customs delays, regional compliance, and supply chain disruptions.
Software Integration - Objective is clear, but risks include compatibility issues with legacy systems and vendor dependencies.
Project Manager’s Role
The project manager acts as a risk strategist and planner, ensuring that potential disruptions are anticipated and mitigated before they derail progress. The role involves balancing proactive planning with flexibility to adapt when risks materialise.
Project Setup
Conduct a thorough risk analysis early in the planning phase. Document risks, their likelihood, and potential impact.
Develop contingency plans for high-probability/high-impact risks.
Build decision points into the schedule to allow for alternative paths if risks occur.
Allocate contingency budgets and time buffers specifically for identified risks.
Ensure contracts with suppliers and partners include flexibility clauses for changes in scope or timelines.
Project Monitoring and Decision-Making
Track risk indicators alongside schedule and cost performance.
Use risk registers to monitor status and trigger predefined contingency actions when thresholds are met.
Empower the project manager to act quickly within agreed limits; escalate only when risks exceed planned tolerances.
Maintain transparent communication with stakeholders about risk status and mitigation actions.
Key Approaches & Techniques
Risk Register: Document all identified risks, their probability, impact, and mitigation strategies.
Probability-Impact Matrix: Prioritise risks based on severity and likelihood.
Scenario Planning: Prepare “what-if” analyses for critical uncertainties.
Flexible Contracting: Include clauses for scope adjustments and schedule changes.
Regular Risk Reviews: Integrate risk discussions into project governance meetings.
References
DE MEYER, Arnoud; LOCH, Christoph H.; and PICH, Michael T. (2002). Managing project uncertainty: From variation to chaos. MIT Sloan Management Review. 43, (2), pp.60-67.
MONTEIRO MARINHO, Marcelo Luiz; DE BARROS SAMPAIO, Suzana Cândido; DE ANDRADE LIMA, Telma Lúcia; DE MOURA, Hermano Perrelli (2015). Uncertainty Management in Software Projects. Journal of Software. 10, (3), pp.288-303.